The Morning View

In a surprise off-cycle policy meeting, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) held its policy rate steady at 4.25%. BSP Governor Remolona noted that monetary policy has limited effectiveness if the rise in inflation was driven by a supply shock. The BSP also raised its inflation projection to 5.1% (from 3.6%) for 2026 and 3.8% (from 3.2%) for 2027. 

GT Capital Holdings, Inc. (PSE Ticker: GTCAP) reported FY25 core net income of Php30.47 billion (+8% YoY), driven by contributions from Metrobank (MBT) and Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP). However, performance softened in 4Q25, reflecting FX-related pressure on TMP’s gross margins and slower loan growth at MBT.

Local equities fell amid profit-taking after a two-day market rally. Iran’s signal that it has no intention to hold direct ceasefire talks with the US also dampened investors’ hopes that the war could end soon. The PSEi closed at 5,984.20 (-0.99% DoD).

Local fixed income yields tumbled and the Philippine peso weakened as investors weighed the BSP’s decision to hold rates steady in an off-cycle meeting.

On average, yields fell by 6.09 bps, with the 2Y closing at 6.01% (-9.15 bps) and the 10Y closing at 6.98% (-4.86 bps).

The USD/PHP pair closed at 60.23 (+0.22% DoD).

US President Donald Trump that he would pause attacks on Iran’s energy plants for 10 days as he claims negotiations were going “very well”. Despite Trump’s claim, Iran continued to retaliate against US and Israeli strikes targeting Israel and US army bases. 

US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 210,000 for the week ending March 21, matching market’s consensus forecast, as the labor market remains in a "low-hire, low-fire" state. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell by 32,000 to 1.819 million (Consensus: 1.849 million), the lowest level since May 2024. 

US equities declined, US Treasury yields jumped, and the US dollar strengthened as optimism over a potential ceasefire between the US and Iran faded, with investors reacting to mixed signals surrounding the state of negotiations. Investors also digested the initial jobless claims data for the week, which matched market’s expectations. 

The S&P 500 closed at 6,477.16 (-1.74% DoD), while the DJIA ended at 45,960.11 (-1.01% DoD).

On average, yields rose by 5.85 bps, with the 2Y closing at 3.99% (+9.70 bps) and the 10Y closing at 4.42% (+8.20 bps).

The DXY closed at 99.90 (+0.30% DoD). 

Sources: BusinessWorld, Inquirer, Philippine Star, Manila Bulletin, Businessmirror, PSE Edge, Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, CNN, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Market Watch

The views expressed herein by BPI Wealth – A Trust Corporation (“BPI Wealth”) are based on sources deemed reliable, but may be subject to change without notice. This material, which is strictly for information purposes only, is for your sole use, does not constitute a recommendation or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any financial product. Any information is subject to change without notice and BPI Wealth is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. You are advised to make your own independent judgement with respect to the matter contained in the report. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss that may arise (whether direct or consequential) from any use of the information contained herein.

Unit Investment Trust Funds (UITFs) are NOT DEPOSIT products and are not an obligation of, or guaranteed, or insured by BPI Wealth or Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) or its affiliates or subsidiaries, and are not insured by the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation (PDIC). Due to the nature of the investment, yield and potential yields cannot be guaranteed. Any income or loss arising from market fluctuations and price volatility of securities held by a UITF, even if invested in government securities, is for the account of the investor/trustor. As such, units of participation of the investor/trustor in a UITF, when redeemed, may be worth more or be worth less than his/her initial participation/contribution. Historical performance, when presented, is purely for reference purposes and is not a guarantee of future results. BPI Wealth is not liable for losses, other than due to willful default, evident bad faith or gross negligence. Investors are advised to read the Declaration of Trust of the relevant UITF before deciding to invest. For inquiries and comments, visit the BPI Wealth website or call us at (02) 8580 - 2682.  

BPI Wealth is a subsidiary of the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI). BPI and BPI Wealth will never ask to verify or divulge your personal information such as your user ID, password and OTP (One-Time PIN) via phone, call, text messages (SMS) or link provided in emails. If you receive a call or email asking you to provide any confidential information, do not engage. Immediately change your online banking password and report the incident to 889-10000.  

BPI Wealth – A Trust Corporation is regulated by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Visit the BSP website for more details.